Vision or Mirage: Saudi Arabia at the Crossroads

This book was a gift to someone heading to Saudi Arabia for the next 4 years. They said it was informative.

I've learned an enormous amount about the history of Saudi Arabia from Vision or Mirage; I've underlined passages on every few pages. Rundell's obviously deep knowledge of Saudi Arabia is apparent throughout, but he writes with a light touch that makes it highly readable and frequently enlivens his prose with an interesting detail that might not be found in more academic histories of the country. He does a remarkable job of explaining the complexities of the 21st century kingdom through its fascinating and sometimes brutal past. For anyone trying to understand just how much Mohammed bin Salman and his father have upended the country -- and the whole region -- this is required reading.

First, the good: this was an extremely well-composed, organized and paced history of Saudi Arabia. I learned so much. I recommend it to all who want to gain a better understanding of this important land. Now the caution: this book is to some extent a Saudi mythology, either whitewashing, explaining away or ignoring facets of Saudi history and behavior in its region and towards the west. I don’t really care about the history of brutality towards its own in this mythology of the Saudi nation. But I scratch my head at the near absence of reference to the long-time Saudi influence campaign in the US. Before there was Qatar, lavishly funding universities, buying up lobbyists, politicians and journalists, there were the Saudis. The author might feel he covers his tracks here and there on this issue with a throwaway sentence, but he doesnt. Likewise regarding the issues with Qatar and the Yemeni civil war, the Israel issue over the years, etc. In a seminar before COVID regarding Saudi-Israeli prospective relations, I heard Henry Kissinger caution his mostly Israeli audience that there is no alliance with the Saudi Royal family that is more than tactical and temporary. I didn’t get a sense of where Kissinger was coming from in this book. The author’s treatment of King Salman and MBS are cautiously critical, which perhaps is fair and reflects views of the deep Saudi state and stakeholders with whom the author may be aligned. I don’t know, which is a reason for more reading on this subject. One merely must look to the identity of the author (and of most of those giving glowing reviews) to understand this treatment. Fifteen years a diplomat in Saudi Arabia, and a member of a consulting firm for western clients in the area, he has his position and relationships to protect. When a journalist writes from a democracy, he has much broader freedom to convey the unvarnished truth than when someone like the author writes from an authoritarian regime (I use the word “from” because even though he might live in the UAE and London, one would suppose his Saudi relationships are still very much part of his professional life, and being in an authoritarian regime, they are subject to pressures). So in summary, cautiously read this book. It is excellent in so many facets and provides a thesis of Saudi Arabia that any student of this country should obtain. However, also look for other sources that may provide “another point of view” so that you can develop your own synthesis of the reality of Saudi Arabia, past and present.

Mr. Rundell's book is brief, to the point, packed with facts but eminently readable, and deeply informed by his many years as an American diplomat in Saudi Arabia. (Truth in packaging: I am also a retired US diplomat, but never served in the Middle East.) The book is excellent for non-specialists who want to look behind the veil (sorry for the pun) to know what makes (or has made) Saudi Arabia "tick", but also for experts because of Mr. Rundell's unparalleled access to key Saudi players who can better reveal what really happened in certain episodes. The book provides a brief overview of the formation and modern history of the Kingdom, then describes each of the power centers (interest groups) which the Saudi dynasty has skillfully balanced and used to sustain its position and stability, and finally describes the key challenges/tasks facing the kingdom ahead, and what we should look to as future indicators of whether King Salmon and his son the Crown Prince are succeeding. The underlying (and insightful) premise of the book is that Saudi Arabia faces acute demographic and economic challenges ahead and needs, if it is to remain stable, to diversify its economy away from oil, but can only produce the necessary skilled and motivated work force by reducing popular subsidies (financed by oil) and introducing more liberal cultural elements into society. The more rapid pace of reform needed has led the King/Crown Prince to abandon the old glacial process of reform based on consensus and log-rolling and instead to adopt a top-down centralized authoritarian scheme in order to force the pace of change. Doing so produces friction with the major interest groups and could itself threaten regime political stability. So the Saudi royal family now faces a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" dilemma, the outcome of which remains in doubt. So this is a most timely book providing an excellent primer by which to judge future events in a country which remains vital as the determinant of the world supply and price of oil...and as a key player in the evolution of Islamic doctrine towards either moderation or extremist terrorism.

This book provides a sweeping and insightful history of the KSA. David Rundell draws upon personal knowledge and analysis along with vast research to assess the present state of Saudi affairs and the prognosis for KSA's future that now is tied to Vision 2030. Vision or Mirage is generous in its treatment of the ruling family and perhaps overly optimistic about the role KSA can play in opposing terrorism and achieving a lasting Arab-Israeli peace. But Vision or Mirage is informative, insightful, and well written. David Rundell provides a must-read for anyone interested in learning about one of the USA's most vital and intriguing allies.

I bought two books on Saudi Arabia and I regret that I have not started with this one. The book gives a comprehensive, overarching overview of the history and modern situation of the country, starting from its formation in the beginning of the 20th century. Mr Rundell analises creation of the country, modus operandi of the Saudi royal family and its relations with the people, regional elites, religious leaders, technocrats, oilmen, neighbours and world superpowers. I liked very much that in each area, after giving deep overview, the author compares the last hundred years of history and the current days, highlighting what is the same and what is different, and which challenges the country and its rulers face in the near future. The language is very engaging, and the Mr Rundell achieved a perfect balance between providing details of every part of his analysis and keeping it easily readable. In my view, the books is written with a great respect to the country and its rulers, the analysis is balanced and it lacks any (wrongly expected) western mentoring. The book is not too long - about 300+ pages, and it is surprising how much useful insight is packed in it. As I recently moved to the country, I keep noticing tracks of Mr Rundell's analysis in my everyday experience. The book was finished in 2021. Even though the author is the first to acknowledge that the country is changing very quickly, in 2024 it is absolutely up-to-date and on spot. As of today, I cannot imagine a better book about Saudi Arabia, its modern history and today's challenges. I wholeheartedly recommend this book.

If your looking for something on Saudi Arabia... this is The Book.

Well structured and easy to read. Incredibly well written by a long time serving diplomat. Absolutely admirable. Many thanks for the author for his endeavor.

I only visited Saudi once back in the 1960s as a transit passenger when I was locked in a room until my aircraft was due to leave. Although I have lived and worked in a number of different countries across the world, I have never had the slightest urge to work in Saudi. I have not changed my mind in reading this book, but I now very much understand one heck of a lot more about this very young country than I did before. The author clearly has a very detailed knowledge of the country, its people, its political and tribal structure, its religion and its language. The book is easier to follow if you have a map handy of a) the location of the multiple tribes and b) the regions and towns/cities. These are very useful in reading up to about Chapter 15 as those early chapters cover the formation of the Saudi we know today. The book traces the formation of the country right through to 2020 and while it is clear that the author has a high regard for the country, he clearly points out its foibles and possible errors into the future. A very enjoyable and instructive book to read, and for the sake of some sort of ongoing peace in the Middle East and across the Muslim world may the Saud dynasty live long !

Purchased this book almost 18 months ago, but kept finding alternative books on the middle east, but I'll be going to Saudi Arabia in a few months so decided to read it. I think it helped that I'd read a dozen or so books on the middle east, and especially Black Wave by Kim Ghattas, it went into more detail and explanation about the 79 attack in Mecca. Vision or Mirage gets you hooked from the beginning, there's a difficult 20 or so pages explaining all the members of the extended ruling family, BUT, it's essential to helping understand the difficulties the Kingdom faced/faces. I kept thinking every chapter was fascinating, so there must be some boring chapters to come, but that wasn't the case. I absolutely loved the comparisons to other middle east countries, it helped put everything in perspective. It really is one of the most illuminating books I've ever read, my only disappointment was finding David Rundell hasn't written another book, such a talent, such a great understanding.