Curve Ball: Baseball, Statistics, and the Role of Chance in the Game

For anyone who wishes to understand cause and effect in baseball, this is a very insightful book. The authors clearly and convincingly demonstrate that many of the statistical outcomes we generally attribute to a player's ability are really nothing more than random effects. For example, a player with a lifetime batting average of .300 who hits .280 during a season is said to have had an "off year." The authors show that any player who has a true batting ability to produce base hits in 30% of his at bats (i.e., a .300 hitter) can be expected to hit .280 or less or .320 or higher about one-third of the time. For someone who grew up thinking that all these year-to-year fluctuations were the result of "good years" and "bad years," the very significant impact of randomness came as a rude awakening! But for the serious student of the game, this is a critically important insight.Similarly, the authors show that a team's win-loss record during any single season may not reflect the team's real ability. Again, in 162 game season, randomness rears its head. It is not that uncommon for a team to win 12 to 15 games less (or more) than its underlying talent would suggest.As we reduce the number of games in a series (for example, consider the typical best-of-seven post-season playoff format), the effects of randomness are greatly magnified. Thus it is not at all uncommon for the best major league team in any season to fail to win the World Series."Curve Ball" is well written, and the authors do a good job of explaining the statistical models they employ. I often find myself returning to this book to refresh my understanding of baseball probabilities.The one deficiency that bothers me most is the lack of a subject index. Thus the reader is forced to thumb through the book to locate some particular topic of interest. But even so, this is an excellent book that belongs in any good baseball library.

More than any other sport, baseball is a game of statistics. This book goes behind the numbers and looks at where the true patterns are and where the seeming patterns are just the result of chance.As an example, the book discusses how, in general, hitting is not affected by night play or day play; on the other hand, there is an effect for facing a right-hander versus a southpaw, based on the side of the plate you are on.Generally well-written, this book only sometimes gets bogged down in statistical calculations and is generally accessible to the nonmathematician. The main flaw in the book is its emphasis on hitting and the relative lack of writing on pitching. While there is plenty of discussion on the value of batting average, slugging percentage or on-base percentage in determining runs scored, there is no similar discussion on ERA or strikeouts and its impact on wins.The other problem I find with the book is it removes some of the mystique of the game. It's sometimes more fun not to overanalyze things; it's kind of like watching a magic show; if you understand what's happening, you feel smarter but some of the pleasure has gone away. Which is not to say that I'm not going to continue enjoying baseball, but I will look at the game with more scrutiny when it comes to all the statistics that are cited.

Just as a cautionary note, this is a statistics book first, and a baseball book second. If you love statistics and baseball, this book is right up your alley. If you love just baseball, or just the math behind the game a little bit, this book is going to be a bit painful. I had worked my way toward this book by enjoying reading about sabermetrics in Baseball Prospectus, Moneyball, and Baseball Between the Numbers - all of which did a great job of explaining the statistical revolution in sabermetrics while keeping the subject matter approachable to the novice or intermediate reader.This book however is much more geared to the advanced statistics lovers out there. Lots of equations/charts/formulas to explain various concepts in the game, without the necessary explanatory narrative to keep it grounded for the non-statistician. It may be a five star book for others out there, just wasn't what I was looking for. So consider my review a cautionary tale before you buy!

A look at baseball from a sports statistics and published mathematical analysis front. Interesting, but not as ground breaking as some of the amateur non university researchers came up with not too much later. A bit of an overview.

Excellent book on the role of chance and probability theory as reflected by baseball statistics and also individual and team play. Written for the baseball fan who does not need a degree in higher mathematics.

It’s a well written book that presents some basics of baseball statistics and “Sabermetrics”. Starting with simple models based on Tabletop Baseball Games, the authors present a compelling case for the role of randomness. The reader is presented with some of the more model metrics (over batting average), like On-base percentages, Slugging percent, The reader is cautioned to review the models assumptions throughout the book. For example, “the independence of hitting results of different at-bats”, but the batter does learn about the pitcher on subsequent at bats (as does the pitcher). The chapter on “streakiness” is well done, and perhaps presents the most compelling case for the role of randomness. The analysis of relative merits of getting on based as opposed to advancing while on base, present good examples of their analysis. The final chapter “did the best team win”, presents some numbers that many fans will find disturbing (Spoiler alert” the chance that the best team wins the world series is about 21%) I thought the book in general emphasized the chance of the batter, but at the risk of complicating things, more should have been presented on pitching and the role of the “ace”.Published in 2001, a modern publisher would benefit from making simulations available on the internet so reader could play with numbers. Whether we like it or not, chance events have a big effect on the patterns of wins and losses that we observe.”