The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World

The Art of the Long View is one of the best books I've read about foresight. The publication contains many valuable examples of business use of foresight with particular emphasis on the scenario method. What can you learn from a book? First of all, the publication opens your eyes to the possibilities offered by foresight in every area of ​​life. Second, the author puts emphasis on business applications convincing about the need and possibilities of foresight for both corporations and small businesses. Thirdly, backed by the experience of the author examples are illustrative, interesting and compelling. A great idea is contained in the publication of a letter to his son. Also note the appendix describing the steps to developing scenarios.Author of The Art of the Long View is a former employee of SRI International, Shell and co-founder of the Global Business Network. From today, Peter Schwartz is my guru of the foreight and scenario method.

The Art of the Long View by Peter Schwartz is mainly a training guide for scenario planning. It does not give step-by-step instructions without the reader having to go through the whole book. The book is an easy read but starts out in the first chapter or two seeming like an info commercial trying to set the foundation of the product right before the viewer (or reader) changes the channel. This foundation of Schwartz’ background and case studies, particularly in the oil industry, are referenced throughout the rest of the book and are necessary before the reader really starts getting into it. Schwartz did a great job in his case study examples explaining how one has to pull the past historical data of events for expectation of what could happen on the three scenario paths that can be taken. The reason for stating “could happen” is that Schwartz made it clear to the reader that scenario planning is not a prediction of the future but merely a tool to use to drive your decisions and prepare for what could happen from the worst extreme to the best extreme outcome. What are the big issues and how does one go about using filters to overcome obstacles for what’s important? These are skills that have to be learned by some but may be a natural instinct by others. Schwartz also mentions that one should narrow the scenarios’ to no more than three as they may overlap and to write the scenarios out as if you were writing a book. He also mentioned that the “driving forces, predetermined elements, and critical uncertainties” must be looked at in order to give “structure to our exploration of the future”. Among the driving forces any event of “society, technology, economy, politics, and environment” can change the course of the future journey. What I liked mostly about the book is how Schwartz went back in time with the readers to the 1960 – 1990’s (my era) and explained the events and how they effected other events socially, politically, economically, and even the drive on the environmental issues. He really did a great job connecting some of the dot’s that drove our economics at the time. It was educational and the younger adults could benefit from this history. His analysis on the teenagers, particularly the baby boomers, was right on target. The baby boomers made major social changes and there are the “global teenagers” that will also make an impact but maybe not as big economically since some of those groups are from poorer countries. (I think I will check into some stocks in the medical industry and hopefully get out in time before so many hospitals and medical facilities are no longer needed as the baby boomers grow older… Schwartz book just makes me think is all…) The last item in my review is the technology scenarios mentioned in the book. One has to continually remind themselves when the book was originally written; in 1990. I don’t believe there were too many updates, if any, to the 1996 books printed. Schwartz made some pretty good scenarios in the book regarding the virtual world but maybe one network overlooked is the wireless market which has really played a large part in technological advances since the book was written. Perhaps Schwartz should write a second part called, “The Art of the Longview: The Past 25 Years and Planning for the Infinite Future”. The history for his next scenario would cover the dot.com era, events on 9/11 and the aftermath, at least two major hurricanes, iPhone and Smart phone market, the drive of converting analog to digital, the first black president, impact to the Japan tsunami, the capture of Saddam Hussien and Bin Laden, affordable healthcare, new regulations, gun control, Washington and Colorado passing sale of marijuana, our borders, how the Cowboy’s haven’t won but one playoff game since the mid-90’s (JK), etc…. etc…, etc… There is a lot to write about for Schwartz that has happened in the past 25 years along with comparing his scenarios’ giving new ones.

This is a must read for those interested in strategic thinking, strategic visioning, and in moving beyond biases and assumptions to imagine the future. Schwartz noted, "I wrote this book [to show individuals] how to begin using a method for investigating important decisions" (p. xiii). He continued to note that the point isn't to pick one future but instead to " make strategic decisions that will be sound for all plausible futures. . . . Scenario planning is about making choices today with an understanding of how they might turn out" (pp. xiv, 4). Such an important discussion and aspect of imagining new possibilities! In an appendix Schwartz identifies the steps to developing scenarios.

Must read for all current a future leaders of the military. This is how you develop strategic thinkers who may be positioned at the strategic, operational or tactical level.

I belief that I possess a strong and reliable gut-feel or instinct. I also have a good knack for organising and quantifying information to help me in the process of decision making. Together these factors which have helped me through many decisions, from moderately difficult to life changing decisions, such as immigration.But Peter Schwartz's book takes planning for the future to a much higher level. Subtitled "Planning for the future in an uncertain world", in "The art of the long view" Schwartz illustrates his own successful recipe for practical futurism.He outlines a "scenario" approach for developing a strategic vision. This approach involves developing 2 - 4 varying scenarios. The approach is based upon a series of steps for developing each scenario, preparing for the likelihood each scenario, and recognising early on which one (or more than one) scenario is actually eventuating, so that appropriate steps can be taken.Although the proposed scenarios are to be presented in a narrative form (which may make some people uncomfortable), the "Long View" approach is quite methodical (though it could perhaps have been presented in a more organised fashion). Apart from that, the approach holds much advantage. I expected a full-on business book glorifying globalisation, knowing that Schwartz had been involved with several multi-nationals like the Royal Dutch Shell Oil Company. I was therefore pleasantly surprised with Schwartz's environmental leanings and his inclusion of the ecological impacts of decisions in scenarios.Taking into account the success rate of teams in which Schwartz has been involved with in the past, the scenario developing strategy definitely seems to me to have much merit. (It would be interesting to see how his predictions for 2005 turns out - in 3 years time). Now if we could only get politicians to read this book and look past their re-election windows. Highly recommended.

Probably one of my top 10 business books, must read for anyone running a company

Padded, repetitive, self promoting. Basic thesis has merit but could be stated in a shorter essay.

Se le notan los años al libro escrito durante los años 90s interesante analizar varios temas que se volvieron realidad.

The book has to be considered a body of experience. An empirical "equation" about building a guideline for plausible futures. I find it useful as a manager to understand a methodological approach to build a set of strategic decisions for your company and for your life. Easy tobread and to understand. then just try it

Worth the money and the read

O objetivo aqui é explicar o processo do que ele chama de "construção de cenários", que permite aos gestores "inventar e, em seguida, considerar em profundidade uma quantidade variada de futuros igualmente plausíveis" para que se possa fazer (em suas palavras) "strategic decisions that will be sound for all plausible futures. No matter what future takes place, you are much more likely to be ready for it -- and influential in it -- if you have thought seriously about scenarios."Os gerentes de empresas (independentemente do tamanho ou da natureza) já estão plenamente cientes da mudança constante dentro dos próprios mercados cada vez mais competitivos. Os recentes desenvolvimentos, como por exemplo a utilização da Internet para acelerar a globalização, sugerem que a mudança ocorrerá progressivamente mais rápida e terá progressivamente maior impacto, tanto positivos como negativos para as organizações em geral.Enquanto isso ocorre, por razões óbvias, os gestores das empresas enfrentam situações diárias que requerem atenção imediata e frequentemente eles devem rapidamente tomar decisões que têm implicações profundas no longo prazo. E sabemos como é difícil ver "o quadro mais amplo", para mantermos uma perspectiva de longo prazo.Schwartz evita fazer previsões, em vez disso, ele ajuda o leitor a formular o grau de probabilidade que certos eventos possam vir a ter - nos ajudando a nos preparar em conformidade.Quero atentar para o fato de que o livro não vai lhe fornecer soluções concretas para questões muito específicas para a formulação de cenários, no entanto, o autor garante que você terá uma visão geral de como projetar cenários convincentes, de onde e como coletar os dados adequados para preencher os cenários escolhidos, sobre como compor um enredo em torno deles, como interpretá-los ou integrá-los em uma estratégia.Há exemplos de previsões do autor, onde ele demonstrou os conceitos, o que torna a leitura bem mais dinâmica. Mesmo que a maioria das previsões estejam datadas (o que não as torna menos relevantes). Algumas são incrivelmente fascinantes de ver o processo em sua previsão, já outras envelheceram um pouco diferente (no entanto a criação de cenários não é sobre a precisão da previsão); em todos os caso o esforço de pensar sobre futuros possíveis e o que eles significam para um indivíduo, empresa, indústria ou país definitivamente vale a pena, mesmo que os cenários definidos especificamente não venham a ser exatamente como o previsto.O aspecto mais interessante que fica é que planejar o futuro nos permite agir muito mais rapidamente e de forma sustentável numa rápida mudança devido à preparação prévia. Certamente é uma excelente prática que muitas empresas/pessoas só teriam a ganhar caso utilizassem.

Distilled wisdom. The combination of sound theory and hard practical experience. Read it if you want to use scenario planning.