The Art of Contrary Thinking

This book is a great work in so many ways. Neill lays out a formula for thinking, decision-making, understanding demographic reaction, leveraging value, and predicting the future that is nearly flawless, to the extent that anyone can. Most of our behavior is spent watching the reactions of others and desperately trying to find a way to fit in or join them. Very often we are late to recognize value, and even later to recognize the erosion of it.Neill reveals his thinking philosophy and methodology proven in his own life as applied to investment and business. His theory that the herd (the vast majority of people) is usually wrong at both ends of the spectrum is demonstrated by examples, and the bell-shaped Gaussian curve. Neill instructs that herd is generally correct in normal times to significant degree, which is represented by the center hump (2 standard deviations) of human performance in the center. But, it is the tails of either end that an opportunity to reverse course and go in the opposite direction. Choosing an oppositional course strategy places you individually in a place to either capture increasing value from the herd joining you later, or anticipates the bubble bursting and gets you out before you lose that same escalating or leveraged value in the swift decline that follows.Quality of thinking is improved by always looking for the contrary. Then all options are available for choice. If the herd always reverses, then we must be suspicions by their labels. When a brand is considered the "best," it is actually a signal that it is time to scrutinize that belief with a glance at the facts. The erosion has probably already started and decline is on the way.This book helps explain the public, market, and reaction to innovation or fad. It is also useful to understand stocks, real estate, or even politics. In Neill's 1950's world, he favors the old style conservatism of Republicans. The kind I used to rely upon and enjoy. But, oddly, every complaint about Dems of his time, appear to be accurate against the present day Republicans. This is clearly an example of how herd behavior can change and how the pendulum swings over time. Unwittingly, I did not change, but the Republicans left me as they swung away from sound conservative practices and principles.Neill explains how the crowd can think it is the same, even though it has gone too far. The herd changes by increment over time. Facts change in life, which requires modification to accompany, sometimes even in thinking. Neill explains how and why this occurs. Then the bubble pops and the opposing philosophy is actually the correct one. Save yourself from losing, and take advantage of the good by letting the herd go. They eventually learn when the stock crashes and the once cherished value becomes worthless.This book should be read by every standardist, investor, consumer, homeowner, teenager, and businessperson.

Mr Neill lays out in short, specific chapters, his arguments for why popular opinions often times turn out to be wrong, while the opposite, contrary opinion, would turn out to be corrrect. The historical examples he uses make one wonder if the "New Economy" of the 1990's is really just a precursor to the types of events seen in the late 1920's/early 1930's and the early 1950's, when prominent economists touted a New Era of prosperity (we all know what the happened afterwards).Mr. Neill also cites past writers who analyzed the behavior of man, and how he gets caught up in the "herd". While sometimes getting off the subject, Mr. Neill lays out a clear framwork of how one assesses what the "popular" opinion is, and how to teach yourself not to get caught up in the herd and to think independantly.A highly recommended book for those who wish to understand how contrary minds think, or for those who need a "refresher" (getting your mind out of a rut according to Neill).

Great idea on that nagging feeling of always wanting to be the one person in the room and avoiding group think. Book is part book and collection of essays that allows for pick up and go reading but can be fragmented if you read through for a whole.Note to the Editor: The spelling errors are frustrating as I am catching them that Word Spell check could have fixed. Shows laziness.

Ok, it’s dated but it’s as relevant as when it was written. The art of going against the crowd is so important in so many aspects of life. It’s worth the small investment in time and money.

Great read, lots of historical examples which principles could still be applied today

Or will it merely make you a cranky loner?I read this book and have learned the value of consistent questioning the validity of my assumptions. I am involved in a business that is on the bleeding edge of technology. You must question and re-question everything on a frequent basis or you will find yourself yesterday's news. Will this book help you to develop the approach to be successful? YES. The rest is up to you.

An excellent and easily readable book on contrary thinking and how to train yourself to think in a contrary manner. It gets confused with being skeptical or negative, but it really is a way to look through popular opinion and construct your own opinion which may be more accurate. After practicing it for a while Time/Newsweek/NY Times headlines really have you testing your new contrary opinions. Enjoy! I have used it for investing purposes and it has worked out well so far.

I've had an old copy of this whose binding finally gave out. I was shocked to find the new edition riddled with an unconscionable number of typos and errors. If you can find an older copy in good condition from a used bookstore its worth reading.

well happy

Apesar dos anos esta obra contém vários "insights" que farão com que o leitor libere a sua mente da atual manipulação feita pelos meios de comunicação em todos os aspectos da vida social.Uma pena que o autor queira nos convencer sobre determinados "ismos" em detrimento de outros.Temos que ser "contrarians" também sobre a arte do "contrary tought".

Trata se de um entretenimento provocativo que incita a ideia de pensar diferente, pensar deslocadamente das massas.

Jeremy Siegel refers to this book in "stocks for the long run" and that's why I bought it. The book's central message is contained in the title, and this is repeated throughout in a series of stand-alone articles. If you just want to know the main message its is this: "when everyone thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong". Maybe "likely" is too strong, but its probably a good habit to force ourselves to consider opposite views and not just go with the crowd.

This book have great insights about what's is it like to be a contrarian. Its worth reading, if you want to perform better at the stock market and in all fields of life!